Waterline / Research validation

Historical reefer market benchmark

A transparent one-week-ahead persistence benchmark for USDA published refrigerated-produce truckload market ranges. We compare the previous reporting week’s midpoint with the next week’s actual reported midpoint, on exactly the same published origin district, destination market and produce grouping.

Not Waterline freight-pricing accuracy. These are weekly market-area indications, not individual customer quotes or actual shipment prices. Waterline’s model does not yet separately model refrigerated equipment, and no comparable carrier-quote holdout has been established. Prices in the planner are not adjusted from this study.

Consecutive-week checks

661

Prior-week-only comparisons

Mean midpoint difference

3.8%

Mean absolute percentage error of the naive weekly baseline

Median midpoint difference

2.5%

Typical week-to-week percentage difference

Within next week's range

67.2%

Prior midpoint falls within the following weekly reported band

Imported USDA rows reviewed

1,416

1,346 price + distance fields usable

Unique valid lane-weeks

773

Identical duplicate weekly records removed

Scored origin/destination/produce groups

102

Newest upstream observation: 2026-10-13

Example lane histories

Results from consecutive prior weeks only. The 12 examples below are selected by observation count, not displayed as nationwide coverage or as individual carrier quotes.

USDA origin district	Destination	Checks	Mean midpoint difference	Next-week range hit
SANTA MARIA CALIFORNIA	BALTIMORE	10	2.8%	80.0%
NORTH CAROLINA	CHICAGO	10	4.0%	70.0%
SANTA MARIA CALIFORNIA	PHILADELPHIA	10	2.8%	70.0%
MEXICO CROSSINGS THROUGH SOUTH TEXAS	MIAMI	10	3.9%	70.0%
OXNARD DISTRICT CALIFORNIA	BALTIMORE	10	3.4%	50.0%
SOUTH AND CENTRAL DISTRICT CALIFORNIA	PHILADELPHIA	10	2.7%	50.0%
DELAWARE, MARYLAND AND EASTERN SHORE VIRGINIA	PHILADELPHIA	10	4.3%	80.0%
KERN DISTRICT CALIFORNIA	CHICAGO	10	5.2%	30.0%
SOUTH AND CENTRAL DISTRICT CALIFORNIA	ATLANTA	10	1.8%	100.0%
SALINAS-WATSONVILLE CALIFORNIA	PHILADELPHIA	10	3.3%	60.0%
NORTH CAROLINA	BOSTON

What must happen before Waterline recalibrates customer prices?

Collect permissioned, provider-reported prices for an actual shipment with full origin/destination, equipment, weight, accessorial terms and dates.
Freeze Waterline’s estimate before the carrier responds; match the identical movement, quote validity and price scope.
Measure held-out errors by freight mode and lane, across independent providers. Report sample size and uncertainty; never use a USDA weekly regional midpoint as a replacement for an executable quote.

Source: USDA AMS Refrigerated Truck Rates and Availability. Consecutive-week backtest uses strictly earlier published dates; nonconsecutive observations beyond ten days are excluded. No future-week look-ahead or artificial shipment data.